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Macau GGR showing improvement through October as some Chinese provinces expedite IVS processes: analysts

Macau’s gross gaming revenue is showing notable improvement through the month of October on the back of increasing traffic from non-Guangdong provinces, according to weekly channel checks by analysts.

In a Tuesday note, JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Derek Choi and Jeremy An said GGR for the first 26 days of October had totaled MOP$6.0 billion at an average of MOP$230 million per day, representing a year-on-year decline of 73%.

That compares with a 90.0% year-on-year decline in September when GGR reached just MOP$2.21 billion (US$277 million).

The analysts also noted that the current rate suggested daily revenue had risen from MOP$200 million per day to MOP$245 million per day over the past week, which “continues to reflect improving traffic from non-Guangdong residents amid relatively wider availability of the IVS visa, in our view.

“Of note, our checks suggest some non-Guangdong provinces (Fujian, Hunan, Jiangsu) are now allowing walk-in visa applications over the counter (self-service kiosks are still not available), an improvement from the advance booking requirement prior to Golden Week.”

Bernstein’s Vitaly Umansky, Tianjiao Yu and Kelsey Zhu outlined similar figures, adding that the past week was down only 66% compared with the same period in 2019. They expect October GGR to decline 73% year-on-year, while JP Morgan has forecast a fall of between 60% and 65% in November and 50% to 55% in December.

Macau’s gaming revenues have declined by at least 90.0% for the past six months, reaching a low of just MOP$716 million, down 97.0% year-on-year, in June.

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